Days out from Super Tuesday, when voters in 14 states will cast ballots in the Democratic primary, a professor who predicted the past nine elections says that the United States may well be staring down its first brokered convention in nearly 70 years.
It’s a prospect that has stirred considerable consternation among Democratic Party officials and voters, many of whom have said their primary concern is beating Donald in November — even as an enthusiastic debate over the future of democratic politics has raged on the campaign trail.
“I think the most likely outcomes are [Bernie] Sanders wins or nobody wins, and for the first time in over 50 years we actually have a convention nominating the candidate,” Allan Lichtman, a political science professor at American University who has predicted elections dating back to 1984, told The Independent.
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Mr Lichtman noted that his prediction model doesn’t make forecasts for primaries, but that there are plenty of signs that a brokered convention could happen: “And that would be very interesting, who knows what might come out of that.”
A brokered convention would occur if none of the candidates in the race win more than half of the pledged delegates by the end of the primary season, a figure that amounts to 1,990 delegates in the race.
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1/18
Jessica Canicosa, a precinct captain for Bernie Sanders, waits to greet caucus voters at Liberty High School in Henderson, Nevada
REUTERS
2/18
Hotel workers at the Bellagio in Las Vegas get to grips with voting papers during the Nevada caucuses
AFP via
3/18
A caricature of Bernie Sanders is projected on to a tree during a rally in Las Vegas
EPA
4/18
A woman waits to have a photo taken with Elizabeth Warren during a town hall meeting in Las Vegas
REUTERS
5/18
The threat of coronavirus and other germ-borne illnesses was on some voters’ minds at the Democratic caucuses in Henderson, Nevada
6/18
Former vice-president Joe Biden takes a selfie with a voter in Las Vegas ahead of the Nevada caucuses
REUTERS
7/18
Amy Klobuchar changes her shoes backstage after giving a speech in Exeter, New Hampshire
AFP/Getty
8/18
A warmly-wrapped-up dog attends an Elizabeth Warren event at Amherst Elementary School in Nashua, New Hampshire
AFP/Getty
9/18
Bernie Sanders, who romped to victory in New Hampshire against Hillary Clinton in 2016, talks to the media in Manchester
Getty
10/18
Joe Biden was hoping to improve on his poor showing in Iowa in the New Hampshire primary
Reuters
11/18
Elizabeth Warren, renowned for giving time to supporters for selfies, works the crowd at the University of New Hampshire in Durham
Getty
12/18
Joe Biden takes a selfie with a supporter and his child outside a campaign event in Somersworth, New Hampshire on 5 February
Reuters
13/18
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders quarrel after a confrontation in a TV debate in which Sanders claimed that Warren was not telling the truth about a conversation in which she claimed he had said a woman could not win the presidency on 14 January
AP
14/18
Supporter Pat Provencher listens to Pete Buttigieg in Laconia, New Hampshire on 4 February
Getty
15/18
Pete Buttigieg speaks at a campaign event in Concord, New Hampshire while awaiting the results of the Iowa caucus
Reuters
16/18
Elizabeth Warren is presented with a balloon effigy of herself at a campaign event in Nashua, New Hampshire on 5 February
Reuters
17/18
A supporter rides past a rally for Amy Klobuchar in Des Moines, Iowa on 14 January
AP
18/18
A man holds up a sign criticising billionaires in the presidential race in front of Michael Bloomberg in Compton, Califronia. The former New York mayor skipped the first caucus in Iowa and instead campaigned in California on 3 February
Reuters
1/18
Jessica Canicosa, a precinct captain for Bernie Sanders, waits to greet caucus voters at Liberty High School in Henderson, Nevada
REUTERS
2/18
Hotel workers at the Bellagio in Las Vegas get to grips with voting papers during the Nevada caucuses
AFP via
3/18
A caricature of Bernie Sanders is projected on to a tree during a rally in Las Vegas
EPA
4/18
A woman waits to have a photo taken with Elizabeth Warren during a town hall meeting in Las Vegas
REUTERS
5/18
The threat of coronavirus and other germ-borne illnesses was on some voters’ minds at the Democratic caucuses in Henderson, Nevada
6/18
Former vice-president Joe Biden takes a selfie with a voter in Las Vegas ahead of the Nevada caucuses
REUTERS
7/18
Amy Klobuchar changes her shoes backstage after giving a speech in Exeter, New Hampshire
AFP/Getty
8/18
A warmly-wrapped-up dog attends an Elizabeth Warren event at Amherst Elementary School in Nashua, New Hampshire
AFP/Getty
9/18
Bernie Sanders, who romped to victory in New Hampshire against Hillary Clinton in 2016, talks to the media in Manchester
Getty
10/18
Joe Biden was hoping to improve on his poor showing in Iowa in the New Hampshire primary
Reuters
11/18
Elizabeth Warren, renowned for giving time to supporters for selfies, works the crowd at the University of New Hampshire in Durham
Getty
12/18
Joe Biden takes a selfie with a supporter and his child outside a campaign event in Somersworth, New Hampshire on 5 February
Reuters
13/18
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders quarrel after a confrontation in a TV debate in which Sanders claimed that Warren was not telling the truth about a conversation in which she claimed he had said a woman could not win the presidency on 14 January
AP
14/18
Supporter Pat Provencher listens to Pete Buttigieg in Laconia, New Hampshire on 4 February
Getty
15/18
Pete Buttigieg speaks at a campaign event in Concord, New Hampshire while awaiting the results of the Iowa caucus
Reuters
16/18
Elizabeth Warren is presented with a balloon effigy of herself at a campaign event in Nashua, New Hampshire on 5 February
Reuters
17/18
A supporter rides past a rally for Amy Klobuchar in Des Moines, Iowa on 14 January
AP
18/18
A man holds up a sign criticising billionaires in the presidential race in front of Michael Bloomberg in Compton, Califronia. The former New York mayor skipped the first caucus in Iowa and instead campaigned in California on 3 February
Reuters
So far, after three states have voted, Mr Sanders leads the field with 45 pledged delegates, ahead of Pete Buttigieg with 25, Joe Biden with 15, Elizabeth Warren with eight and Amy Klobuchar with seven.
Those tallies will all change in the next week, after voters in South Carolina — where Mr Biden has been banking on strong support from African Americans to lend some weight to his campaign — and then voters on Super Tuesday cast their ballots.
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South Carolina will award 54 pledged delegates. Super Tuesday, meanwhile, marks the largest number of delegates available on a single day with more than 1,300 delegates at stake nationwide.
A contested convention would mean that no candidate had reached that half-way threshold, and that multiple rounds of voting would take place to determine the winner. After each round of voting, a certain portion of delegates are freed up to vote for whomever they want. Campaigns at that point try to convince free delegates to come over to support their candidate.
According to prediction models by FiveThirtyEight, 2020 is shaping up to be such a year. That website gives Mr Sanders the best chance at winning more than half of the pledged delegates by the end of the primary season — but just a 32 per cent chance of doing so. The chance that nobody receives that majority of delegates is pegged at 51 per cent, and the only other candidate with a significant chance of doing so being Mr Biden, at 15 per cent.
Mr Lichtman, for his part, isn’t as worried about the damaging impacts of a brokered convention, nor the damage of a long and bitter Democratic primary that it would necessarily follow after.
“Internal party fights only count when it is in the party holding the White House,” Mr Lichtman, whose prediction model indicates that it is generally speaking the incumbent’s election to lose, said. “The challenging party can fight all they want and it has no impact . Look at the bitter battle by the Republicans in 2016 — it was much worse than what is happening with the Democrats this time. They were saying terrible things about each other and they still won.”
