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Cambodia is set for its first transfer of power in almost four decades — to the son of its autocratic prime minister.
The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), led by Prime Minister Hun Sen, declared a landslide win in Sunday’s election, which was deemed a sham by the West and many international observers. Hun Sen, 70, has indicated that he will soon give up the premiership to his eldest son, Gen. Hun Manet, a soldier who was trained at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, N.Y.
The United States will also have an interest in how Hun Manet navigates tensions between Beijing and Washington. Cambodia is a long-standing ally of China, which is its largest investor. The United States is the Southeast Asian nation’s biggest trading partner.
Here’s what to know about the Hun family and what the election means for Cambodia and the region.
What happened in Cambodia’s election on Sunday?
The polls were “neither free nor fair,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement, adding that Washington would impose visa restrictions on unspecified people who had “undermined democracy.”
One reason for Hun Sen’s sweeping victory: His toughest opponents were not allowed to contest. The main opposition Candlelight Party was disqualified over what authorities called a paperwork issue. Local courts in 2017 dissolved the Cambodian National Rescue Party, co-founded by Hun Sen’s longtime rival Sam Rainsy. Fellow opposition leader Kem Sokha is under house arrest.
In January, Hun Sen threatened to “beat up” political opponents, rhetoric that led Meta’s Oversight Board to call for his social media accounts to be suspended.
Cambodia’s leader has given conflicting statements on when he will hand over power, said Chhengpor Aun, a visiting fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. In a recent interview, Hun Sen said the transfer could take place as early as August.
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Who is Hun Manet, Cambodia’s likely next leader?
Hun Manet, 45, is a four-star general and commander of the Royal Cambodian Army. He is married to Pich Chanmony, a daughter of a senior Cambodian policymaker.
Hun Manet graduated from the U.S. Military Academy in 1999 and also has a postgraduate degree in economics from New York University and a PhD in the same subject from the University of Bristol in England. Unlike his father, he speaks fluent English and has a more diplomatic manner, according to observers.
Over the past two years, he has been increasingly active in meeting foreign leaders, lawmakers and defense officials, according to an analysis by the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank.
But there is little indication his Western education has influenced his politics. In September, the Khmer Times, a newspaper aligned with the CPP, praised Hun Manet’s ability to identify “potential threats” among the Cambodian diaspora, which has long been associated with political opponents of Hun Sen.
Hun Manet was also lauded by the newspaper for helping to “rectify perception” of Hun Sen’s party abroad so that it was seen more positively, as well as creating international branches of the CPP to help unite overseas supporters.
The U.S. Military Academy did not immediately return a request for comment early Monday.
Who is Hun Sen, Cambodia’s long-serving prime minister?
Hun Sen was once part of the Khmer Rouge, the totalitarian regime that rose to power in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, which also saw neighboring Cambodia devastated by U.S. bombs. The Khmer Rouge perpetrated a genocide that saw the deaths of at least 1.7 million Cambodians due to starvation, overwork, disease and execution. Its population at that time was about 7 million.
Hun Sen was a mid-ranking commander in the Khmer Rouge but defected to Vietnam halfway through its four-year reign. When the Vietnamese army invaded Cambodia in 1979, he was installed as foreign minister of the puppet government. He became prime minister in 1985.
When U.N.-run elections in 1993 saw his party fail to capture a majority, Hun Sen refused to step down, instead negotiating a power-sharing agreement. Several years later, he launched a successful coup against his co-prime minister.
The prime minister has increasingly suppressed media and political freedoms. Freedom House’s 2023 Freedom in the World Report gave Cambodia 24 points out of a possible 100, down from 30 in 2018. “Hundreds of opposition figures, journalists, trade union leaders, and others have been killed in politically motivated attacks” during his rule, Human Rights Watch said in a 2015 report.
He has used his position to amass massive personal and familial wealth, according to a 2016 investigation by Global Witness, an anti-corruption nonprofit organization. Hun Sen — whose official annual salary is about $30,000 — has also been seen sporting luxury watches that cost six or seven figures. The prime minister has denied allegations of graft.
But Hun Sen has also overseen a period of significant development and peace, Aun said. Economic growth has largely been robust in the past 30 years, and Cambodia — whose industries were almost entirely destroyed by the Khmer Rouge — became a lower middle-income nation in 2015, according to the World Bank.
“It is a matter of fact that they brought Cambodia out of the war,” said Aun. “And then there is the Cambodian economic prosperity of the last 30 years.”
How will Hun Manet change Cambodian politics?
Aun said the top brass of the CPP would probably hand over their government roles to their offspring in unison, though they would keep senior positions within the party.
“These young cabinet members will likely be given some sort of autonomy to decide, but a lot of major decisions, I think, will still need to be cleared with their parent,” he said.
Hun Manet’s biggest challenges include managing perceptions of government corruption and dealing with climate change, including what have been increasingly severe flood-and-drought cycles. Agriculture still accounts for about a fifth of the country’s economy, according to World Bank data.
Cambodia’s ties with China are also under scrutiny by the West. Phnom Penh has played a major role in undermining the ability of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to hold a joint position on Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. Western officials told The Washington Post last year that Cambodia allowed China to build a strategically important naval base on its coast. Phnom Penh and Beijing both denied the claim.
In 2020, Hun Manet accompanied his father during a meeting with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping. He also met last year with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan, a major aid donor. By contrast, he has had little engagement with U.S. political leadership, according to the Lowy Institute analysis.
