Russia’s brutal and illegal invasion of Ukraine, tearing up the accepted international order, is rightly dominating the immediate foreign policy agenda of Western leaders.
It is striking however, how quickly their discussions switch to identifying another country – the People’s Republic of China – as the “biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security”.
With those words, the American FBI Director Christopher Wray concurred with an analysis by Ken McCallum, the director of MI5.
McCallum stated that China represents “the most game changing challenge we face”. He has recently been backed up by rare public comments from the heads of Britain’s two other intelligence agencies, GCHQ and MI6.
There is a focus on China this week because the five-yearly Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress opens in Beijing on Tuesday 18 October.
What is actually the 20th CCP National Congress is expected to endorse an unprecedented third five-year term for Xi Jinping as party general secretary, the de facto President of China.
There will be no let-up in his hard line policies of competition with Western democracies.
In spite of mild reservations expressed by China since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin and Xi declared “friendship without limits” between their two countries shortly before the attack.
This was widely seen as the green light from Beijing to Moscow to unleash war in Europe.
Western politicians are rapidly re-adjusting their policies in response to actions taken by the Chinese and Russian leadership.
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In her second report from Taiwan, Cordelia Lynch visits Kinmen Islands, which lie just a few kilometres from the coast of China.
Hopes that economic co-operation could benefit both East and West are being replaced by fears that Chinese aggression will result in competition, confrontation and, potentially, conflict.
The mood of British MPs was summed up this week by the election of the new chair of the all-party Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee to replace China hawk Tom Tugendhat, who has gone into the government as security minister.
Tugendhat is one of five MPs sanctioned by China for their criticisms. Another is Nusrat Ghani, who has been outspoken on the Uighurs. She has also re-joined the government as minister for science and security investment, both key interests for China.
If anything, the new chair Alicia Kearns, the Conservative MP for Rutland and Melton, has been more outspoken than her predecessor.
At the time of the high profile visit to the disputed island of Taiwan this summer by Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Ms Kearns got into a Twitter spat with Chinese government officials.
She forcefully rebutted their claims that Taiwan should be part of “One China” tweeting: “Except that history makes clear Taiwan is not an inseparable part of Chinese territory or history.
“In 1683 the Kangxi Emperor said that ‘Taiwan is outside our empire and of no great consequence’. It wasn’t until 1943 and, more so, 1949 that the CCP began to claim it.”
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The Committee is planning a Pelosi-style trip to Taiwan this year, when British MPs will express their solidarity with the continued independence and democracy with the island.
At the Congress, Xi is expected to refer to Taiwan as a “special administrative area” like Hong Kong and Macau, implying falsely that it is already under Beijing’s control.
Meanwhile, President Biden has ended carefully studied ambiguity by answering “yes” when asked if the US would respond militarily if China attacks Taiwan.
Apparently drawing lessons from Ukraine’s relative lack of preparedness against attack, the US is already helping Taiwan stockpile weapons.
The Biden Administration has just approved its sixth arms package for Taiwan worth $1.1bn, including Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
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US warships sail through Taiwan Strait
What is the UK’s position on China?
In her previous job as Foreign Secretary, Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss hardened Britain’s diplomatic stance towards China.
She referred to the country as a “threat” and criticized the World Trade Organisation for being “too soft” on it.
She was party to the new AUKUS security pact to counter Chinese expansionism, which was bitterly denounced by China as having “undermined regional peace and security.”
Truss appears to be bringing down the final curtain on the “golden era” hailed by Da Cameron and George Osborne.
Under their complacent leadership, Britain aspired to be China’s “best partner in the world” for trade and investment and defied the US by participating in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Xi was even honoured with a state visit to Britain in 2014.
Relations between the two countries have deteriorated since then, in spite of attempts by some to keep the emphasis on money making.
Theresa May refused to sign an investment pact with China and blocked Chinese investment in a nuclear plant and telecoms.
As prime minister, Boris Johnson flip-flopped on Huawei’s involvement with 5G, first reversing May’s ban and then re-instating it, after the outbreak of COVID.
New Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg currently faces a tricky task, balancing his enthusiasm for free trade with national security in deciding the fate of a ground-breaking Wales based semiconductor manufacturer.
His department BEIS “called in” the proposed sale of Newport Wafer Fab after its parent company was acquired by the Chinese business Wingtech.
Liz Truss has appointed two ministers at the Foreign Office to work on China.
Lord Zach Goldsmith will continue demanding China honour commitments on environmentalism. His deputy in the Commons, Jesse Norman MP, is concerned about the balance between trade and national security and warns that China’s “Belt and Road aid” initiative is ensnaring poor nations in a noose of indebtedness.
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Some civilians in Taiwan are preparing to take up arms and are undertaking first aid training.
Other countries are also torn over China
The UK is not the only country torn over its relations with China. The relatively new SPD Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, plans to copy his Christian Democrat predecessor, Angela Merkel, by taking a plane load of German business leaders on a trade trip to China next month, which will include meetings with Xi.
The Chinese are keen to celebrate 50 years of “win-win” diplomatic relations with Germany, which opened up after US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972.
The Greens, Scholz’s junior coalition partners, are much more suspicious of China, as are other EU countries.
Annalena Baerbock, the Greens co-leader and Germany’s foreign minister, faces an awkward session next week when EU Foreign ministers gather in Luxembourg to discuss China.
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Josep Borell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, recently argued that China is “our systemic rival… the Chinese are trying to explain to the world that their system is better than ours. Because, well, maybe you are not going to choose your head of government, but you will have food, and heat, and social services”.
There is resistance in China to rule by Xi and the CCP. Sky’s Asia correspondent Helen-Ann Smith spotted a banner put up briefly by protesters reading: “Overthrow the dictator and thief of the country, Xi Jinping.”
But nobody doubts that Xi will consolidate his position on the Politburo’s Standing Committee, effectively making him China’s president-for-life. He is already 69 years old, and the customary age for retirement from the Politburo is 68.
Dr Ju Jie of the London based foreign affairs think tank Chatham House said: “The CCP seeks to create a stable external environment to foster its domestic economic development.”
The question for the West is how far “creating that environment” will damage our way of life and that of others around the world.
