It happened.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in defiance of Western warnings about incurring unprecedented sanctions, sent his warplanes, soldiers, and ships to attack Ukraine.
Ukrainian troops are battling hard and – in some cases – effectively. A Ukrainian source and a Western source have said that Russian forces did not advance as far as they had planned during the first day of what appears designed to be a lightning fast intervention.
But given the vastly superior firepower of the Russian military, the odds are stacked heavily against Ukraine – at least during this initial phase of the invasion.
Kyiv is under threat, along with large swathes of the south and east of the country. In the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “a new iron curtain” is falling across Europe.
The big question, is what will happen next?
There are multiple possible scenarios, but they probably fit around three different ends of the spectrum: from all-out Russian victory, to a quick win evolving into long-term retreat.
There is also a fourth – albeit unlikely – outcome: Ukraine defeats Russia’s invasion from the outset.
1. Russian victory heralds dawn of new era
At one end, Mr Putin achieves an initial military victory, topples the democratically-elected government and successfully installs a puppet regime.
This new administration turns the nation firmly eastwards, rejecting previous desires to join the EU and the NATO defence alliance – both red lines for the Kremlin.
And of Ukraine’s more than 40 million people, those who can leave and want to go do, while those who stay behind adapt to the new normal.
Ukrainian and Russian forces clash on multiple fronts – live updates
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Kyiv and Chuhuiv rocked by airstrikes and shelling
For Moscow, it attempts to mitigate as much as possible the impact of the West’s punitive sanctions, forging ever closer ties to the world’s largest authoritarian power, China.
The lesson from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would then feed the aspirations of other authoritarian regimes, particularly in Beijing, at the expense of liberal democracies.
The West is left looking exposed, weak, and unable to defend the fundamental values of the rule of law, democracy and human rights that have underpinned their prosperity for decades.
President Xi Jinping of China would doubtless be planning his next move on Taiwan, shaped by Russia’s actions over Ukraine.
All this could well spell the dawn of a new era where great powers impose their will over weaker rivals.
It would also mean the end as we know it of what is known as the international rules-based order that has shaped the world since 1945, benefitting democracies and hampering authoritarian governments.
Friday’s papers lead with ‘darkest day in peacetime history’
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What are the key areas of the invasion of Ukraine?
2. Putin’s forces dominate a died Ukraine
The second scenario is only marginally less bleak from a Western perspective.
Mr Putin succeeds in taking and holding Ukraine’s entire coastline, stretching along the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, cutting off the country’s ability to export.
It cripples the economy, leaving a rump state to be ruled by a weakened government in Kyiv.
An east-west Germany-style die would then cut through Europe.
All parts of Ukraine under government control would be able to build closer ties with Western allies, while the other part of the country is absorbed back into the Russian sphere of influence.
Read more:What is Putin thinking?What is happening in Ukraine?How does Ukraine’s military compare to Russia’s?
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Moment pilot ejects from jet near Kyiv
3. Effective resistance leads to protracted guerrilla warfare and ultimate Ukrainian win
As for the other end of the spectrum, there is the very real likelihood of a powerful and effective Ukrainian resistance to counter any Russian occupation or Russian-imposed government.
It could drag Moscow into a protracted guerrilla war in Ukraine, triggering discontent in Russia as the number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded grows, along with the financial cost of the mission. This is a situation that ultimately threatens Mr Putin’s authority.
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This is the kind of scenario Boris Johnson appeared to favour when he gave a televised address to the UK.
“Our mission is clear,” the prime minister said. “Diplomatically, politically, economically – and eventually, militarily – this hideous and barbaric venture of Vladimir Putin must end in failure.”
It would require Western powers to take risks and go beyond painful economic sanctions in supporting Ukraine by arming, training and offering other forms of covert support to whatever resistance force emerges.
Image:
Servicemen of the Ukrainian National Guard take positions in central Kyiv
Speaking on Thursday afternoon, one Ukrainian source said that he was ready to resist.
“I hope that a coup in Russia is also possible, otherwise the world is in deep trouble.”
The UK, the US, NATO and the European Union have all said backing Ukraine against the threat it faces from Russia is vital to uphold shared values of democracy and liberty and protect security in Europe.
Their rhetoric sounds strong but unless it is backed by meaningful actions on the ground then it becomes hollow.
As well as supporting Ukraine’s resistance militarily, the West would also need significantly to increase investment in their respective armed forces after decades of neglect on the part of most European members of the NATO alliance, including the UK.
Only with the capability and the willingness to use force, can they hope to be able to push back against authoritarian threats – as has been demonstrated by events in Ukraine.
4. Ukraine’s military defies the odds and defeats President Putin’s forces on the battlefield
It is much harder to attack than to defend, meaning that if Ukraine’s armed forces can hold out against the Russian invaders then they have a chance of beating them back or at least ensuring that a Russian victory comes at the highest possible price in terms of soldiers lost.
Despite being outgunned, the Ukrainian military is far better trained and equipped than when Russia first challenged this country with the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Image:
Ukrainian servicemen stand guard next to a destroyed armoured vehicle on the outskirts of Kharkiv
Counting against them though, is their limited supply of weapons and ammunition even after the US, the UK and others flew in plane-loads of supplies in recent weeks.
They have so far put up a strong fight, in the north, east and south. A battle for a key airfield in the northwest of Kyiv is a good example of how they are – at the very least – slowing Russia’s invasion plans down.
The Hostomel airfield was captured by a small unit of Russian forces on Thursday morning but then retaken by Ukrainian forces, according to the president’s office.
The airfield is seen as a key target because it would enable Russia to fly in transport aircraft carrying sufficient troops to make a move on the capital.
As President Putin has taken the extraordinary step of ordering the invasion, it is hard to imagine he could allow it to fail.
But if Ukraine’s troops are able to hold the line then they can make the move so costly that the Russian leader’s own authority at home is destroyed.
