Gregory Raymond, a lecturer researching Southeast Asian politics at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, said there was still a possibility that the two military proxy parties — United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharath — could cobble together enough seats to mount their own claim to government. “That is still, in my mind, the last scenario. It would be highly undemocratic but can’t be ruled out at this point,” Mr. Raymond said.
Analysts warned that the Senate choosing to block Mr. Pita’s appointment would likely galvanize protests in Thailand, plunging the country into more political turmoil.
“I think the reaction will be much more dangerous than four years ago,” said Purawich Watanasukh, a research fellow at King Prajadhipok’s Institute in Thailand, referring to the nation’s previous election. “Right now, many people have Pita as their new prime minister in their minds. If Pita cannot be prime minister and Move Forward cannot form the government, it will break the people’s hearts. And it will be very, very bad.”
In 2020, the country’s Constitutional Court disbanded the Future Forward Party, the previous iteration of the Move Forward Party, after the election. Tens of thousand of Thais took to the streets of Bangkok to protest the decision.
What started out as a protest for democratic reforms quickly grew into a pro-democracy movement calling for checks on the Thai monarchy, a subject that was once considered taboo.
The country’s conservatives are likely to step up their campaigns to block the rise of Move Forward in the coming days. Last week, a conservative candidate petitioned the Election Commission and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate Mr. Pita for failing to disclose that he owned shares of a now-defunct media company that he had inherited from his father. By law, no candidates running for Member of Parliament are allowed to hold shares in a media firm.
Mr. Pita brushed off the petition, saying he had already reported the shares to the authorities.
But Move Forward will need to manage many competing interests to keep the coalition intact. It was the only large party that pushed to amend a law criminalizing criticism of the monarchy, arguing that the law had been weaponized by royalists to persecute protesters who participated in pro-democracy demonstrations.
