Europe’s hardest-hit nation, Italy, has reached 100,000 cases of coronavirus and recorded more deaths than any other country.
Hospitals are overwhelmed and funeral services are struggling to keep up with the number of fatalities, particularly in the worst-hit region of Lombardy.
But there are some signs that infection rates are slowing, which begs the question – have COVID-19 cases in Italy peaked, and if not, when?
A pandemic peaks in a country when the number of new infections in a single day reaches its highest point.
Cases registered now will reflect exposure to the virus about two weeks earlier, according to health chiefs.
The increase in new confirmed cases in Italy is currently at 4% – the lowest it has been since the outbreak began.
This is half as much as four days ago, and four times less than two weeks ago.
The number of people who have recovered also reached its highest level on Monday, with 1,590 people said to have beaten the disease.
For the first time, the amount of people currently positive for COVID-19 in Lombardy has decreased, falling from 25,392 on Sunday to 25,006 on Monday, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Although the number of current positive increased in around 120 people on Tuesday, jumping to 25,124.
It is important to note these figures only account for confirmed cases, and there may be a number of people with the virus who have not been tested.
Some people have died in hospital without being tested, while mild cases could be missed – meaning cases are very likely underreported.
The decline in the rise of new infections could be partly explained by a reduction in the number of tests, which were the fewest for six days.
Therefore the number of deaths could be a more reliable measure – but there is a lag between when people get sick and the outcome of their illness, which means we will need to wait longer to see if the rate of deaths slows down.
On Sunday, the number of people who died after testing positive in Italy for coronavirus rose by 756 – the lowest daily rise in deaths since Wednesday.
But the fatality figure rose by 812 on Monday, the Civil Protection Agency said, reversing two days of declines.
On Friday, the head of Italy’s national health institute cautioned that cases of COVID-19 had not yet reached their peak.
But Silvio Brusaferro said there were “signs of a slowdown” in the number of people becoming infected, suggesting the peak might not be far away.
On Monday, deputy health minister Pierpaolo Sileri said he believed the climax in cases was not far off.
“We can hope to reach the peak in seven or 10 days, then, reasonably, a decline in contagion,” he said.
The head of health emergencies at the World Health Organisation (WHO), Mike Ryan, said there was a “fervent hope” Italy is approaching a peak, as lockdown measures start to bear fruit.
However, he warned it is difficult to know when the peak has been reached, pointing out the peak went up and down in the Chinese city of Wuhan before it was actually reached.
Mr Ryan also emphasised the importance of not just trying to get past the peak, but testing and isolating cases.
Inside Italy’s virus crisis wards
“The question is how do you go down, and going down isn’t just about a lockdown and let go. To get down from the numbers, not just stabilise, requires a redoubling of public health efforts to push down,” he said.
Following the recommendation of scientists, Italy has extended its nationwide lockdown until at least 12 April.
WHO experts have warned that most cases of transmission are now happening in the home, and people who feel unwell should be quarantined separately in a medical facility.
